NEW LISTING COUNTS LOWEST IN OVER 20 YEARS
The valley is currently experiencing an almost once in a lifetime unbalanced market due to the extreme scarcity of properties for sale. This extremity is startling even to those of us whom have tracked numbers for 20 years. Supply is 77% below normal for this time of year – shocking. The Phoenix metro area has a population of over 4.5 million and has just under 4500 properties for sale. That is all property types (home, condo, mobile) all price ranges. To put that in perspective, a normal market would have closer to 30,000 properties for sale.
Even more concerning, is the rate of properties to replenish those that have sold. Tina Tamboer of the Cromford Report shared the following:
Over the past 6 weeks, REALTORS® have added an average of 2,059 new listings per week to the Arizona Regional MLS…. While just over 2,000 new listings per week may seem like a lot, it’s actually the lowest rate for this time of year in at least 20 years. A normal level would be considered around 2,500 new listings.
While the supply scarcity is definitely the headline, it would be wise to keep our eyes on demand as well. Demand is still 17% above normal but is beginning to stall due to decreasing affordability (higher interest rates & rising prices). Demand was 35% above normal as recently as December. Tina Tamboer makes this prediction:
“…at this rate, demand could be at a normal level in a couple months and below normal by June. This will not cause prices to decline because there are still a miniscule number of competing listings in the MLS, but it could mean that the second half of 2021 could look different from the first, especially if there’s a temporary boost in new listings after the forbearance period ends and the foreclosure moratorium is lifted.”
As always, we will continue to track the market. Have questions about your neighborhood? Contact us.
-Wendy And Russell Shaw